empty
07.04.2025 10:08 AM
Markets Descend Further into Chaos (Expect Renewed Declines in #SPX and #NDX)

The global market crash continues. The trade war declared by Donald Trump on much of the world is in full swing. Investors have stopped reacting to economic data, even though some of the latest figures are quite notable—though they may only worsen if the shock therapy intended to "cure" the U.S. economy fails.

And amidst all this worldwide chaos, an interesting picture is emerging in the U.S.—the country responsible for triggering this situation. Labor market data published on Friday was robust and positive. The number of new jobs in the non-farm sector came in at 228,000, far exceeding the forecast of 137,000 and the previously weak February figure of 117,000. Yes, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, but this is still manageable.

If we step back from the chaos affecting the financial markets—such as U.S. equity indices falling back to early last year's levels—we can see that strong job creation indicates the U.S. economy is still relatively healthy.

However, back to market dynamics: we must admit that asset prices have been unjustifiably inflated for years. The primary reason was an overwhelming amount of liquidity, or unbacked capital, pumped into the dollar-based financial system by the Federal Reserve to support demand and later bail out crumbling financial pyramids, starting with the 2008–2009 mortgage crisis. This liquidity spread worldwide and ballooned the U.S. national debt. That had to end at some point—and that's precisely what Trump is tackling now.

Excessively bloated stock markets, especially in the U.S., are clearly shown on the charts. Hardline shock therapy could lead to even deeper crashes. The S&P 500 could fall first to the 4,000.00 level, then down to 3,550.00. This wave of selling may also trigger reduced interest among retail traders in cryptocurrencies. For instance, Bitcoin could fall to around $60,000. Other tokens that have risen excessively could follow the same path.

As for the U.S. dollar, the ICE dollar index is unlikely to drop below 100.00 points. On one hand, the dollar supply in the financial system will significantly shrink, making it "scarce" and boosting demand. On the other hand, market panic and fears of a full-scale economic downturn in the U.S.—fueled by rising tariffs—will likely lead to higher inflation. This would not only prevent further rate cuts by the Fed but could also prompt rate hikes. In such a case, the U.S. dollar could strengthen again against all major currencies, possibly excluding the Japanese yen, which is supported by tightening monetary policy from the Bank of Japan.

What can we expect from the markets today?

We believe the flight from risk will continue. Investors will likely increase their purchases of government bonds from developed economies. Stock indices will remain under heavy selling pressure, as evidenced by the gap-down openings in futures markets. A similar pattern is expected in the cryptocurrency market. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is likely to consolidate against a basket of major currencies, supported by rising expectations of renewed inflation in the U.S.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Forecast of the Day

#SPX

The CFD contract for the S&P 500 index opened with a gap down on Monday. Continued bearish sentiment and a widespread flight to U.S. Treasuries could lead to a break below the 4805.80 support level and a renewed drop toward 4806.00 after consolidation. A possible entry point is at 4776.10.

#NDX

The CFD contract for the NASDAQ 100 index also opened with a gap down. If risk-off sentiment persists and investors continue reallocating into U.S. government bonds, we could see a break below the 16,328.00 support level and a further decline toward 15,520.00, possibly after a brief consolidation or slight rebound. A potential entry point is at 16,205.60.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par GBP/USD. 7 de mayo. Trump no recibió la llamada desde China. Tuvo que retroceder.

El martes el par de divisas GBP/USD inició un nuevo ciclo de crecimiento mientras el euro continuaba su flat,. En realidad, el crecimiento comenzó ya el lunes, pero

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de mayo. La reunión de la Fed, como nuevo "dolor de cabeza" para el dólar.

El par EUR/USD continuó moviéndose de manera lateral durante la jornada del martes. Recordemos que el flat general dura ya casi un mes, pero además de eso, el mercado

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 6 de mayo. Trump toma el control de la industria cinematográfica.

El par GBP/USD también se negoció al alza durante la primera mitad del día lunes, y a la baja durante la segunda. Aunque esta vez la moneda estadounidense no perdió

Paolo Greco 07:39 2025-05-06 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 6 de mayo. La protesta contra Donald Trump continúa.

El par EUR/USD comenzó un nuevo ciclo de crecimiento el lunes. Probablemente, ya nadie se sorprende por otra caída del dólar estadounidense. El mercado comenzó a vender la moneda estadounidense

Paolo Greco 07:39 2025-05-06 UTC+2

El Bitcoin se ha perdido en el mismo lugar

Donald Trump prometió convertir a América en la cripto capital del mundo, casi organizar un paraíso para los entusiastas del mundo cripto. Sin embargo, en la práctica ha confundido tanto

Marek Petkovich 13:53 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 5 de mayo. Reuniones del Banco de Inglaterra y la Fed.

El par de divisas GBP/USD tampoco logró ni subir ni bajar durante el día. Muchos expertos interpretaron los datos laborales y de desempleo de EE.UU. como positivos, simplemente porque

Paolo Greco 08:09 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 5 de mayo. Nueva semana de sufrimiento para el dólar.

El par EUR/USD el viernes en general se mantuvo en su nivel. Durante el día se observó tanto subida como caída. Para el dólar es una suerte el hecho

Paolo Greco 08:09 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 2 de mayo. La divisa estadounidense subió por poco tiempo

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó cayendo durante el jueves. El dólar fortaleció sus posiciones durante tres días consecutivos, para lo cual objetivamente no había ninguna razón. El contexto macroeconómico

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 2 de mayo. Al dólar le espera un nuevo colapso. Y no será el último.

El par de divisas EUR/USD volvió a negociarse el jueves con bastante calma, pero esta vez la divisa estadounidense ya no logró mostrar un fuerte crecimiento. Lo bueno, en pequeñas

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 30 de abril. El mayor misterio de 2025 ha sido revelado.

El par EUR/USD continuó negociándose el martes dentro de un rango limitado con una volatilidad bastante baja. En realidad, 80 puntos por día para el euro es un valor

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-04-30 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.