empty
27.03.2025 10:21 AM
Who Had Any Doubts? Trump Remains Committed to His Economic Course (GBP/USD May Fall, #SPX May Rise)

Despite the ongoing political maneuvering, U.S. President Donald Trump remains committed to his economic strategy. This approach aims to dismantle the long-standing global economic model in which the U.S. primarily produces money while the rest of the world supplies the goods.

And once again—unsurprisingly—he has taken another step in this direction by following through on a previous promise: implementing a 25% tariff on all imported cars, including passenger and light trucks. Additionally, tariffs on spare parts were also increased. All of this is set to take effect on April 2, the so-called "Hour X," when other tariffs will also come into force. Why is he doing this? According to the president, the goal is to stimulate manufacturing within the U.S.

As I've previously explained, Trump's main objective is to quickly put the U.S. on the path of producing real goods—cars, computers, food, and so on—that are currently being imported in massive quantities. He understands that maintaining the previous economic course will eventually destroy the U.S. economically and politically. In effect, he's applying shock therapy, believing that while the initial effects may be painful, real improvements will follow. He aims to shift the trade balance in favor of the U.S. rather than China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, and others who currently benefit most from exporting to America.

And what about financial markets? They're showing signs of shock, but there hasn't been a collapse. On one hand, some still hope the president might soften his stance and reduce trade tariffs. On the other, realists believe that the first shock wave has passed. This means the markets have already priced in the decision and, in the future, will only react to the actual impact. Even imposition the most aggressive tariffs may not visibly affect the markets.

The U.S. stock market continues to benefit from an influx of foreign capital amid global geopolitical risks, including the Ukraine crisis. The weakness of the European economy, combined with hollow promises of recovery and discussions about creating a European army, remains just talk, prompting European businesses to gradually shift toward the U.S., where government support is clearly on display. We are witnessing a liquidity-channeling process from Europe to America.

Given all this, I believe there is no reason to expect a stock market collapse in the U.S. Yes, there may be a local dip around the April 2 tariff enactment, but any decline will likely be quickly bought up, setting the stage for a new wave of stock index growth.

Will the U.S. dollar fall sharply? I doubt it. Trump has repeatedly stated that he wants the dollar to retain its dominant global role. Any moderate decline in the dollar could be beneficial, helping U.S. companies remain competitive globally. I believe the ICE dollar index will stay above 103.00. However, the euro, sterling, and other Forex-traded currencies—except for the yen—may come under prolonged pressure from the ongoing trade wars.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Forecast of the Day:

#SPX

The SPX CFD (S&P 500 futures) remains in a short-term uptrend and is even showing signs of a local bullish reversal. It is trading above the support level of 5711.85, which from a technical standpoint allows for continued growth. Holding above this level could lead the contract to rise toward 5812.75. A potential entry point could be 5727.87.

GBP/USD

The pair is trading below the 1.2930 level. If it stays below this mark, a renewed decline is likely, first toward 1.2865, and then to 1.2800. A potential entry point could be around 1.2908.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. La inflación en Tokio se acelera, pero el yen sigue siendo vulnerable

El informe publicado hoy sobre el crecimiento de la inflación en la capital de Japón resultó estar en la "zona verde". La publicación permitió a los vendedores del par usd/jpy

Irina Manzenko 12:25 2025-03-28 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 28 de marzo. La libra no tuvo tiempo de caer, pero volvió a subir.

El par de divisas GBP/USD volvió a cotizarse al alza el jueves, aunque hace unos días comenzó una especie de corrección bajista. El mercado incluso reaccionó a un informe débil

Paolo Greco 07:24 2025-03-28 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 28 de marzo. A Donald Trump le gusta hacer sorpresas.

El par de divisas EUR/USD mantuvo una inclinación bajista durante el jueves, pero se negoció al alza durante el día. La volatilidad volvió a ser baja, lo que indica

Paolo Greco 07:24 2025-03-28 UTC+2

USD/JPY. El yen se devalua a la espera del informe sobre el crecimiento del TCPI

El par usd/jpy mantiene el potencial de un mayor crecimiento. El informe sobre el crecimiento del TCPI, que se publicará el viernes, o bien reforzará la tendencia alcista, o provocará

Irina Manzenko 12:13 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Donald Trump volvió a confundir a todos

Ayer, el presidente de EE.UU., Donald Trump, declaró que planea una serie de excepciones a su amplia propuesta de aranceles, lo que se convirtió en la última insinuación velada sobre

Jakub Novak 08:45 2025-03-26 UTC+2

El jefe del Banco de Inglaterra contra los aranceles y a favor del desarrollo de la IA

La intervención de ayer del gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra, Andrew Bailey, solo abordó parcialmente la economía del Reino Unido y sus perspectivas. Hablando durante una conferencia en la Universidad

Jakub Novak 08:17 2025-03-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Una semana importante para la libra

La libra espera acontecimientos importantes y significativos. El miércoles se publicará el informe clave sobre el crecimiento de la inflación en el Reino Unido, así como la intervención

Irina Manzenko 12:22 2025-03-24 UTC+2

El ataque a la estación de medición de gas Sudzha solo provocó un aumento temporal de los precios

Los precios del gas natural en Europa registraron un fuerte repunte debido a un ataque contra una estación de bombeo inactiva en la región de Kursk, Rusia. Según

Miroslaw Bawulski 10:29 2025-03-24 UTC+2

Los mercados atrapados en un círculo vicioso sin salida por ahora (posible caída del Bitcoin y del precio del oro)

Los mercados están en estado de confusión debido a la enorme cantidad de noticias negativas que se ciernen sobre ellos sin un final claro a la vista. En este contexto

Pati Gani 11:13 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 17 de marzo. El mercado se ha dormido, la economía no le interesa a nadie.

El par de divisas GBP/USD el viernes "murió" definitivamente. En la ilustración a continuación se puede ver claramente que la volatilidad fue bastante alta en los primeros tres días

Paolo Greco 07:03 2025-03-17 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.