فاریکس تجزیہ اور جائزے: 24.01.2025

24.01.2025 09:56 AM

Stock Market Update: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Hit New Yearly Highs

After Donald Trump's speech in Davos yesterday, S&P 500 futures rose by over 0.7% and continue to trade positively. The tech-heavy NASDAQ gained approximately 0.6%, thanks to Trump's signing of an executive order on AI funding. Meanwhile, the industrial Dow Jones remains relatively flat.

It's important to note that U.S. stocks have now increased for the ninth consecutive day, reaching a new all-time high. This surge is attributed to President Trump's comments suggesting a potentially softer approach to tariffs on China. Additionally, the Japanese yen strengthened following an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Chinese stocks experienced a significant surge, and the yuan continued its rally after Trump stated in an interview that he would prefer not to impose tariffs on China, the world's second-largest economy.

The situation seems to be easing from the worst fears regarding U.S. tariffs. While it's too early to say for sure—and Trump is fickle—there are increasing signs that U.S. trade policy toward China is open to negotiation. In this context, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds have declined.

Trump's remarks could also indicate a willingness to negotiate with Beijing before resorting to significant tariffs on Chinese imports. Nevertheless, it's hard to imagine Trump completely backing away from his tariff threats, so market growth might continue only until these threats materialize into concrete actions.

As I noted above, in Japan, the yen strengthened against the greenback after the BOJ raised interest rates for the first time since July. It briefly broke the key 155 level against the dollar during Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference, then retreated as traders digested his comments. The central bank has signaled that it expects inflation to be faster than it had previously forecast in the coming years. The BOJ also said that if its forecast comes true, it will continue to raise interest rates.

Investor sentiment is somewhat optimistic about the Trump administration's ability to implement measures that will stimulate stock growth while controlling inflationary pressures. This would allow the Federal Reserve to continue easing monetary policy this year. Interest is growing in sectors linked to infrastructure and high technology, tied to the administration's plans for significant investment projects. Furthermore, optimism is supported by discussions of potential tax reforms, which could further boost business and consumer spending.

However, caution is warranted: geopolitical tensions and unpredictable decisions could alter this optimistic scenario. Nevertheless, current market sentiment reflects a readiness for a positive outlook, enabling many market participants to seize the opportunities available.

Demand for the S&P 500 remains strong. The main objective for buyers today is to break through the nearest resistance level at $6,116. If they succeed, it will sustain the upward trend and pave the way for a rally to $6,125. Another key target for bulls will be to gain control over $6,137, which would further solidify their position. If there's a downward movement due to a decreased risk appetite, buyers need to step in around $6,105. If they fail to maintain this level, the price could quickly drop to $6,092, potentially leading to a decline toward $6,079.

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