Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The first test of the 149.30 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. Because of this, I did not sell the U.S. dollar.

The second test of 149.30 happened as the MACD indicator recovered from the oversold area, allowing Scenario #2 (buying) to play out, leading to a 30-point increase in the pair.

The expected U.S. new home sales data will play a role in USD/JPY direction, but do not expect a major market reaction. This indicator is important for assessing the country's economic health, as it reflects consumer purchasing activity and confidence in the future. Given the recent Federal Reserve rate cut, an increase in sales will not be surprising. Typically, rising home sales indicate economic growth, while a decline may signal economic slowdown or recession.

Additionally, speeches by Federal Reserve representatives Raphael Bostic and Thomas Barkin will be closely watched for any indications regarding future rate cuts, which could put additional pressure on USD/JPY.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to buy USD/JPY today at 149.90 (green line on the chart) with a target of 150.48 (thicker green line). At 150.48, I will exit buy trades and initiate sell positions, expecting a 30-35 point downward move.

Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 149.14, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward, targeting 149.90 and 150.48.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below 149.14 (red line on the chart), which could lead to rapid price declines. The key target for sellers will be 148.41, where I will exit short trades and initiate buy positions, expecting a 20-25 point rebound.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 149.90, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward, targeting 149.14 and 148.41.

Chart Explanations:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying.
• Thick green line – take profit target or suggested area to secure profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling.
• Thick red line – take profit target or suggested area to secure profits, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Used to assess overbought and oversold conditions when entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Be cautious when entering the market. Avoid trading during major economic releases to prevent unexpected price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize risks. Without stop-loss orders, your account could rapidly deplete, especially if you trade large volumes without proper risk management.

A structured trading plan is essential—avoid making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions. This is not a sustainable strategy for intraday traders.