Analisis Forex & Kajian: 03.02.2025 - How Trump's tariffs could...

03.02.2025 12:16 PM

How Trump's tariffs could influence oil and gas markets

Brent oil futures are trading higher in light of the news on new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. However, the effect of these decisions on the oil market remains ambiguous.

A rebound is possible in the short term, but trade restrictions could lead to a reduction in business activity in the long term, which, in turn, would dent demand for energy resources.

Despite the strengthening of the US dollar index (DXY), oil and natural gas prices continue to rise today.

Natural gas: technical picture and growth potential

Natural gas futures opened with a significant gap upward, driven by technical oversold conditions observed on the RSI on the 1-hout chart. It was expected. The price bounced off a key support block around $3 per MMBtu, which also represents:

The 50% Fibonacci retracement level

The area of previous highs

A level close to the trendline

All of this confirms the potential for further growth. However, the RSI has already entered the overbought zone on smaller timeframes, indicating a possible short-term correction before a new upward momentum.

News background

On Saturday, Donald Trump officially imposed new tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico, and China.

Today, talks are scheduled between the US, Canada, and Mexico. If no compromise is reached, the tariffs will take effect on February 4th.

According to the US Department of Energy, Canada and Mexico are the main oil suppliers to the US, providing a quarter of the total amount processed by American refineries.

Analysts' reaction and potential consequences

Goldman Sachs predicts that the influence of tariffs on energy prices will be limited in the short term. The bank notes that the volume of natural gas imports from Canada is too small to make a profound impact on the market.

The main burden of the tariffs will fall on Canadian producers and American consumers of petroleum products.

The US will likely find alternatives to supplies from Canada and Mexico by increasing oil purchases from OPEC countries, Latin America, and oil product producers in Europe. Goldman Sachs believes that the imposed tariffs are temporary, and their impact on the market will be short-lived.

The bank has kept its Brent price forecast for 2025 and 2026 unchanged:

2025: $78 per barrel

2026: $73 per barrel

Logistics of Russian oil: route changes

A sanctioned vessel, the Huihai Pacific, delivered Russian oil to China. The initial destination of Shandong was changed to Tianjin, near Beijing. Indian refineries have again started receiving offers for Russian Urals with shipments in March. At the same time, the discount has decreased, and logistics costs have risen.

Who benefits from new tariffs?

European and Asian refineries may emerge as the main beneficiaries of the new US tariffs. The new tariffs on key US oil suppliers (Canada and Mexico) will reduce the profitability of American refineries, which is likely to lead to a decrease in refining volumes.

The US is a diesel fuel exporter and a gasoline importer, meaning that European refineries will benefit, as the northeastern US will be forced to increase gasoline imports from Europe. Canadian and Mexican oil producers will be forced to apply discounts to their invoices, making their petroleum products more attractive to Asian refineries.

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