Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

There were no tests of the designated levels in the first half of the day due to low market volatility, which carried over from yesterday's European session into today's session.

I hope the second half of the day will be more dynamic. The speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin will attract market participants' attention. His comments on the current economic situation, inflation, and monetary policy outlook could significantly impact investor sentiment and market trends. Special focus will be on his views regarding future Fed rate cuts, which could weaken the dollar.

Another key event will be the speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic. His statements will be closely analyzed for clues on the Fed's future policy direction. Given his previous remarks, his stance may be moderately dovish, which could further pressure the U.S. dollar. Traders should pay attention to his views on balancing inflation risks and economic growth.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Buying the euro today is possible at 1.0503 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0540. At 1.0540, I plan to exit the trade and initiate sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point downward move.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy EUR/USD in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.0485, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward, aiming for 1.0503 and 1.0540.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

Selling the euro is planned after 1.0485 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target is 1.0455, where I will exit shorts and buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point rebound.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell EUR/USD if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0503, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward, aiming for 1.0485 and 1.0455.

Chart Explanations:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying.
• Thick green line – take profit target or suggested area to secure profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling.
• Thick red line – take profit target or suggested area to secure profits, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Used to assess overbought and oversold conditions when entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Be cautious when entering the market. Avoid trading during major economic releases to prevent unexpected price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize risks. Without stop-loss orders, your account could rapidly deplete, especially if you trade large volumes without proper risk management.

A structured trading plan is essential—avoid making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions. This is not a sustainable strategy for intraday traders.