empty
15.04.2025 12:08 PM
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Today, the Japanese yen is struggling to extend its gains due to optimistic developments regarding trade negotiations and the postponement of tariffs. President Trump's statement about possible exemptions for the automotive industry may provide short-term support to the markets, but it also underscores the instability and volatility of current policy.

However, there are factors that may limit the downside for the yen, such as expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Uncertainty around tariffs has led investors to reassess their expectations for rate hikes in Japan. Nevertheless, if the Bank of Japan does decide to raise rates in light of rising domestic prices and wages, this would support the yen in the long term.

Concerns over a rapidly escalating trade war between the US and China—which could undermine global economic growth—combined with optimism about a possible trade agreement between Japan and the US, are also supportive for the yen.

On the other hand, comments from Federal Reserve officials about potential rate cuts in response to economic shocks from tariffs are putting pressure on the US dollar. If the Fed indeed begins lowering rates, this could weaken the dollar and further support the yen.

Today's release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index may influence the USD/JPY pair's dynamics. However, Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday is a key event for gauging the Fed's future path on interest rates. This will significantly impact the US dollar and could provide a new catalyst for USD/JPY.

Technical analysis shows that upward movement will face strong resistance around the psychological level of 144.00. However, sustained momentum beyond this level could trigger a short-covering rally, lifting spot prices toward the 144.45–144.50 range and possibly extending to the key 145.00 level. The bullish impulse may stretch further to the 145.50 zone and the round number of 146.00.

This image is no longer relevant

Conversely, weakness below the 143.00 level is expected to find support near the 142.25–142.20 level, just above the next round level of 142.00, which coincides with the multi-month low reached last Friday. A decisive break below this level could be seen as a new trigger for bearish momentum, dragging the USD/JPY pair down to support at 141.60 and then toward the 141.00 level. Further losses could expose support at 140.30 and the September 2024 swing low before spot prices potentially drop to the psychological 140.00 mark.

It's also worth noting that daily chart oscillators are approaching oversold territory, indicating a potential correction is on the horizon.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Record High in March

The euro responded with an increase following the news that the U.S. trade deficit rose to a record level in March this year, as companies rushed to import goods, including

Jakub Novak 10:48 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Markets Will Not Be Dictated To

The market's eyes have finally opened. Donald Trump is not the kind of president who would lower tariffs in response to reciprocal reductions from other countries. The occupant

Marek Petkovich 09:56 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Is It Worth Hoping for a Strong Market Rally? (There is a high probability of continued growth in #SPX and #NDX)

Equity markets have improved, demand for cryptocurrencies has risen, yet gold prices dropped sharply after a local rally. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has remained almost unchanged against major currencies

Pati Gani 09:28 2025-05-07 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Is Further Decline Inevitable?

The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged during the monetary policy meeting on May 1. In the "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices" report, the Bank lowered

Kuvat Raharjo 09:28 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Gold Returns to Growth

Gold has resumed its upward movement as investors analyzed trade-related comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent while awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. Bessent recently stated that

Jakub Novak 09:14 2025-05-07 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 7? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday, and in any case, they are unlikely to have any meaningful impact on either of the currency pairs. The euro remains

Paolo Greco 06:55 2025-05-07 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 7: Trump Didn't Get a Call from China, Had to Back Down

On Tuesday, while the euro remained stuck in a flat trend, the GBP/USD currency pair began a new upward move. The rally started on Monday, but during the U.S. session

Paolo Greco 03:35 2025-05-07 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 7: The Fed Meeting Becomes the Dollar's New "Headache"

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade strictly sideways on Tuesday. The broader flat market has now lasted for nearly a month, and in addition to that, the market seems

Paolo Greco 03:35 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Trade War as Part of Global Confrontation

Many may believe that the trade war initiated by Donald Trump is simply a tool to reduce the budget deficit and national debt. However, it becomes clear upon closer examination

Chin Zhao 01:06 2025-05-07 UTC+2

May FOMC Meeting: A Preview

We'll learn the results of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting on Wednesday. On one hand, it's a routine event with a predetermined outcome. On the other hand, the currency

Irina Manzenko 00:32 2025-05-07 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.