Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the British Pound

The test of the 1.2651 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying GBP. However, the price only increased by 10 pips.

Considering that U.S. new home sales data is unlikely to have a significant impact on GBP/USD direction, Thomas Barkin's speech from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be the main focus today. His comments on economic conditions, inflation, and monetary policy outlook could influence investor sentiment and impact the U.S. dollar's movements. Of particular importance will be his stance on the Federal Reserve's next moves regarding interest rates.

Another key event will be the speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic. His statements will be examined for dovish signals and hints about further rate cuts, which would favor risk assets and strengthen the British pound.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to buy GBP today at 1.2659 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.2689 (thicker green line). At 1.2689, I will exit buy trades and initiate sell positions, expecting a 30-35 pip downward move.

Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy GBP/USD in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.2639, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward, aiming for 1.2659 and 1.2689.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell GBP today after a breakout below 1.2639 (red line on the chart), which could lead to rapid price declines. The key target for sellers will be 1.2613, where I will exit short trades and initiate buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point rebound.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell GBP/USD in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.2659, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward, aiming for 1.2639 and 1.2613.

Chart Explanations:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying.
• Thick green line – take profit target or suggested area to secure profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling.
• Thick red line – take profit target or suggested area to secure profits, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Used to assess overbought and oversold conditions when entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Be cautious when entering the market. Avoid trading during major economic releases to prevent unexpected price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize risks. Without stop-loss orders, your account could rapidly deplete, especially if you trade large volumes without proper risk management.

A structured trading plan is essential—avoid making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions. This is not a sustainable strategy for intraday traders.