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25.02.2025 03:09 PM
Bitcoin and Ethereum: key factors behind their recent plunge

Bitcoin plunged by 6.5% and Ethereum lost over 7.0% in just the first half of today alone. As for Bitcoin, there had long been speculation about a break of the $90,000 level, which immediately triggered the liquidation of major players' stop-loss orders, causing a massive sell-off in the world's first cryptocurrency. Although Bitcoin is still performing relatively well compared to other digital assets, it has now been caught up in a broader sell-off driven by traders' reluctance to take risks.

The average spot price of the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has risen since the US elections, currently standing at $96,500. This indicates that those who purchased the ETF are now facing losses.

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However, there is no need to panic. It may be wise to gradually buy on the dips, as the medium-term market growth outlook remains intact. The lower yield on US Treasury bonds, caused by reduced risk appetite following the recent disappointing US economic data, could ultimately benefit Bitcoin. However, it is not advisable to rush into medium-term purchases just yet. It is better to wait for the price to break through the key support level of $80,000 and then act accordingly.

The strong correlation between the cryptocurrency market and US stocks has also contributed to a drop in digital asset prices today. Investors have been actively offloading riskier assets from their portfolios, including a number of cryptocurrencies. This trend highlights the growing integration of the crypto market into traditional financial systems. Fearing further instability, investors have been shifting their funds into more conservative assets such as government bonds and the US dollar, adding pressure to cryptocurrency prices. Going forward, portfolio diversification and risk hedging may become key tools for protecting against volatility.

In the short term, as cryptocurrency prices approach critical support levels, it is crucial for the losses to be quickly reversed. Bitcoin must reclaim the $90,000 level to avoid further downside risk. Failure to do so may lead to another major sell-off.

Amid the recent challenges faced by cryptocurrencies due to macroeconomic pressures and new US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, traders will be closely watching the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January, which will be released later this week. This data is widely regarded as one of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauges. If inflation appears to be falling towards the Fed's 2% target, rate cuts could follow, potentially triggering active buying of riskier assets, including Bitcoin.

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From a technical point of view, Bitcoin buyers are aiming for a return to the $90,200 level, which would open the way to $91,400, and eventually up to $92,700. The ultimate target would be a high of around $93,900. Breaking this level would signal a return to a medium-term bull market. If Bitcoin falls, buyers are expected to regain control of the market at the $88,600 level. A drop below this mark could quickly push BTC towards $87,200, with the next target at $85,600.

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As for Ethereum, if the price consolidates above the $2,439 level, the way to $2,490 would open. The next key target would be a one-year high of around $2,544. Breaking this level would signal a return to a medium-term bull market. If Ethereum dips, buyers are expected to take over around $2,387. A drop below this level could quickly push ETH towards $2,335, with the next target at $2,275.

Jakub Novak,
ইন্সটাফরেক্সের বিশ্লেষণ বিশেষজ্ঞ
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